What Happens Now? The Paradoxes of Criminalizing an Insurgency
A week later, and I am still at a loss for words to describe the feeling of dread that I have for our future as a nation. The attack on our seat of government, on the sacred heart of our democratic republic is by far one of the most appalling things that I have witnessed in my 42-years on this Earth. Notice, that I did not say “surprising”. It is about as surprising as finding out that Vader is Luke’s father… after watching Empire Strikes Back for the 217th time…
Was the sacking of the Capitol more appalling than watching officers of the Minneapolis PD murder a man on camera, or a vigilante posse gun down a man for wearing a hoodie? Yes… and no… While the gruesome acts of violence are horrid in their own right, the attack on the Capitol was carried out by a mob that accepts an authoritarian ideology and encourages violence against minorities in the US.
Obviously, those who attacked the Capitol should be arrested and punished to the fullest extent of the law. These charges should include conspiracy to kidnap federal officials. If some of these insurrectionists are not facing life in prison, then our justice system is severely broken (another shocker… I know). — Contrast this with a BLM protestor who is now facing life in prison for splashing paint on and smashing windows of a building. — However, the problem of rooting out and punishing the seditionists is much more difficult and much more perilous than most people may appreciate. Why? Because we are now facing an American insurgency.
The American Insurgency
Insurgencies are difficult to combat. They are disorganized, generally have multiple factions (which means that there is no unifying leader) and the insurgents are difficult to separate from the surrounding population. The most difficult aspects to combating an insurgency is that the unifying characteristic of an insurgency is some mix of ideology and religion, and not necessarily a unifying leader or figurehead. The participants are either active insurgents or passive supporters. But why would people support insurgents when the insurgents are criminals? Because, the supporters don’t view insurgent actions as a crime… they view them as legitimate and necessary.
The difficulty that we now face with the nascent American insurgency is that although those that attacked the Capitol clearly committed crimes, their motivations, and even their actions, have been legitimized by GOP lawmakers and the President for the last four years. Those who support the attackers will raise the obvious question of “If this was wrong, why did the President encourage this for the last four years?”
In other places where the United States has fought counter-insurgencies, the information landscape is fairly straightforward. There is TV, radio, and some social media. However, in 2020, and now 2021, the new American insurgent has his own information feed that is separate from the mainstream information feed and has defense mechanisms in place against what it considers misinformation (i.e. actual facts) that encroach from non-insurgent sources.
So why is it that treating this insurgencies as strictly criminal activity so problematic? Remember, the insurgents do not view themselves as criminals, and they have a degree of state sponsored legitimacy for their movement. Therefore, rightful arrest and prosecution of insurgents will be interpreted by their supporters as acts of aggression. This perception will be reinforced in the insurgent echo chambers with little to no counter-messaging. Successfully combating the insurgency means that active insurgents must be brought to justice and the cycle of disinformation must be broken.
But even with bringing insurgents to justice and successfully messaging to their supporters, the United States must have its own vision that is compelling enough to drain the insurgent swamp. The Biden Administration, and indeed, the nation, are in for a long and perilous journey.
Are we prepared for this?
In a word? “No.”
Controlling and combating an insurgency is about controlling information as much as it is about finding the insurgents themselves. What does that mean for our First Amendment rights?
Controlling access to weapons is another critically important component to fighting an insurgency. What does that mean to how we currently interpret the Second Amendment?
Starving an insurgency means controlling resources. What does that mean for our Fourth Amendment rights?
What if things escalate to a point where we must deploy active duty military formations to combat hostile insurgents? (And by “hostile insurgents”, I still mean Americans…)
The sad fact is that many of the liberties that we take for granted will now be challenged in order to combat the active insurgents and pacify their supporters. And isn’t that precisely what they claim is already happening? Therein lies the problem for the counterinsurgent. Therein lies the problem facing the Biden Administration and our government.
Never mind the fact that our foreign adversaries, such as Putin, Khomeni and Rouhani, are practically giddy with delight at the opportunities presented to them. Historically, the United States is the country that sends agents and troops to fight insurgencies… we don’t host them. What happens if the insurgents then start forming their own alliances with our enemies and foreign adversaries sending their troops to “advise” American insurgent units?
As we’ve come to understand counterinsurgencies, deployment of regular forces means that they have to perform a broad range of duties from combat to quasi-law enforcement activities. Would that constitute a violation of the Posse Comitatus Act? Wasn’t this the very question that we were incensed about Mr. Trump raising? (And though such a scenario would be a legitimate use of force, consider how the insurgency would portray it.)
How the United States looks at the “end” of this insurgency will vary greatly from how we look today. Ironically, it is highly likely that as a result of this new insurgency, we will lose some of what truly made “America great” in the first place. The right-wing militias and their supporters who championed “America First”, American exceptionalism and American liberties will ultimately cost us all of these things, if not more.
No matter who ultimately wins, we will all lose.
The Bottom Line
Let’s recap where we are on this 12th Day of January in the Year of Our Lord, 2021…
- Although the first shots of a nascent American insurgency were fired on January 6th, 2021, the groundwork was laid years, if not decades, ago.
- While Mr. Trump is the catalyst and figurehead for the insurgency, at its core, the insurgency is still leaderless. The unifying factors of the insurgency are ideological and religious in nature. These ideologies are currently rooted in fear of losing social identity, fear of losing control and supremacy, and fear of abuse by the government. (Frankly, it does not matter, if you, dear reader, or I agree with these fears or not.)
- Even though the insurgency is leaderless, the cause it is pursuing has been granted some legitimacy by the GOP and Mr. Trump for the last five years. This perceived legitimacy means that threats and attacks against the US government are no longer considered “criminal” actions by its supporters.
- Doing nothing is not an option. The United States must defend itself or risk foreign adversaries seizing on the opportunity to undermine our sovereignty (more than they already have). The US government must exercise all legal and Constitutional means to punish acts of aggression by insurgent groups.
- Punishing acts of aggression by insurgent groups is not enough. The United States must offer and communicate a better and more compelling vision of the country than is being pursued by the insurgents. Communicating to insurgent supporters and sympathizers is increasingly difficult because they use alternate channels of information that are quick to attack mainstream messaging.
- Defending itself against the insurgency will fundamentally alter the fabric of our government and society. Whether those changes lead to something out of an Orwellian novel, or the “Handmaid’s Tale” (“Praise Be”) remains to be seen. Regardless, the very things which the insurgents say they want (which they already have) will likely be destroyed as a result of having to combat them.
At this point, it is anyone’s guess what happens from here but it is unlikely that the violence will slow down. It is now time to prepare yourself and your family for difficult times ahead because it does not appear that the current GOP leadership will do anything to quell the insurgency that they inflamed. And at the risk of sounding hyperbolic, unless men and women sympathetic to the insurgent cause resume their place in civil society, get ready for sights like the one pictured above to become commonplace. Insurgents will eventually establish enclaves in ungoverned or poorly governed spaces, and Americans will no longer enjoy the carefree freedom of movement that we do now. Like the Civil War, families will be split and friends will become enemies. Unlike the Civil War, the battle lines will not be as clear, and neither will the solutions.
