Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment — 15 March 2022

Apologies for missing yesterday’s update. Here are some of the significant events over the last 48 hours:

· President Zelenskyy is addressed Congress today.

· The ISW assessrep for 15 March 2022.

o Russia is still unable to resume its offensive around the crown jewel of Kyiv despite the addition of reserve call ups, mercs and foreign fighters. The concentration of offensive maneuver is currently centered around Mariupol.

· The exchange rate of the Russian ruble is currently 108 rubles to 1 USD. This is slightly strengthened from Monday. Is this an indication of Chinese monetary backing?

· Ukraine seems willing to reject future NATO membership as a concession during Russo-Ukraine peace talks.

· Forbes published an excellent analysis of Russian armor losses in the first three weeks of the war. Best estimates suggest that Russian armor losses hover between 8–10% of their total inventory of armor committed to invading Ukraine. This is consistent with earlier estimates and is likely unsustainable over the next few months.

· Latest op graphic from OSINT integrator @JominiW.

Thank you,

~Eric